中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易效应研究

我们使用了2000年至2017年的面板数据，涵盖21个国家。同时，为了避免遗漏变量偏差，我们使用时间固定效应和个体特定固定效应来捕捉所有国家间未观察到的异质性。结论是存在贸易创造效应，但不存在贸易转移效应。相反，CAFTA的形成也促进了非成员国对中国的出口活动，不仅为集团内成员国，而且为集团外成员国带来了贸易收益。在动态贸易效应方面，利用时间序列数据检验了中国与东盟贸易活动与东盟经济增长之间的关系。结果表明，这两个变量是一阶积分，表现出协整关系。此外，CAFTA还可以促进成员国之间的投资和竞争。

1.  Introduction

1.1   Background and significance of the selected topic
The  21st  century  is  an  era  of  globalization  and  regionalization.  The  number  of countries  and  regions  that  have  concluded  bilateral  free  trade  agreements  and established  free  trade  zones  is  increasing.  After  US  broke  out  a  subprime  mortgage crisis  in  2008,  the  world  economy  had  a  short-term  adjustment  and  then  fell  into  a downturn due to factors such as the European debt crisis. The global economy continues to shrink. Trade protectionism re-emerges worldwide, and has a tendency to scale up. Faced  with  the  complicated  international  situation,  more  and  more  countries  have placed their solutions on participating in regional economic integration organizations represented  by  free  trade  zones.  Some  countries  have  elevated  the  importance  of promoting regional economic integration to the same or even more important position as multilateral trade. The number of Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have increased over the years. According to the latest statistics of WTO, as of 1 September 2019, 302 RTAs were in force (WTO 2019). The international trade competition has moved from the individual games between countries to the group games between groups.
In  the  past  20  years,  China  and  Southeast  Asian  countries  have  actively participated  in  world  trade.  Asian  economies  play  a  key  role  in  the ‘‘Factory  of  the World’’ as a result (WTO, 2011). Association of Southeast Asian is called ASEAN for short. There are five founding members which are Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand. After the 1980s, another five countries joined ASEAN which are Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia, making this organization cover the  entire  Southeast  Asia  region.  It  is  well  known  that  China-ASEAN  Free  Trade Agreement  came  into  effect  on  January  1,  2010,  but  it  was  first  proposed  in  2000. According to Cai (2003), it was the first important Free Trade Agreement for China. It is also the world's most populous (1.9 billion) free trade area. As a south-south FTA which has a large growing market, CAFTA helps ASEAN members enlarge their export market and promote the  economic growth.  In turn, China can also be able to import more  raw  materials  at  a  cheaper  price.  In  general,  CAFTA  can  be  considered  as  an important  step  in  strengthening  trade  activities  and  economic  cooperation  among ASEAN members and China (Yang, Shanping; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2013).
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1.2   Research methodology and thesis structure
The aim of this paper is to do an analysis of the trade effects of CAFTA taking both static and dynamic effects into consideration. The main research methods used in this paper is the combination of empirical analysis and qualitative analysis. In terms of static effects, panel data of exports of China- ASEAN free trade area and another ten countries that rank top 10 place among China’s trading partners are employed to analyze trade creation effect and trade diversion effect. All the data cover the period from 2000 to 2017. To achieve that, gravity model is used. For the dynamic effects, data like GDP and the volume of export between ASEAN and China are collected to test if there is any expected positive and long-term equilibrium relation between them. At the end of this paper, on the basis of the results we have gotten above, this paper brings forward some future research directions that this paper does not touch, followed by suggestions and implications designed to solve main challenges and problems confronted in the process of CAFTA development.
This  paper  includes  six  parts  and  the  detailed  arrangements  are  explained  as follows: the first part mainly introduces the research background, research methods, contributions and shortcomings. The second part is literature review at home and abroad. Section 3 describes some related theory about regional economic integration and the mechanisms  about  how  a  free  trade  area  affects  the  trade  effects.  Section  4  is  the overview  of  CAFTA,  including  the  development  process,  status  quo,  analysis  of competitive advantages and intensity of trade, and some challenges confronted. Section 5 empirically and quantitively analyzes the static and dynamic trade effects of CAFTA. Section 6 gives some concluding remarks, future research direction and development suggestions.
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2.  Literature Review

2.1   Review on regional economic integration
Hinojosa-Ojeda  R  and  Robinson  S.  (1992)  analyzed  employment  and  wage implications of the completion of North American Free Trade Area. Three models are employed in the analysis and the results indicate that NAFTA does not have too much influence  on  the  United  States,  and  existing  distortions  create  a  second-best environment  in  which  the  theoretical  predictions  become  ambiguous. All  the  CGE models generated plausible scenarios where salaries or wages in the United States and Mexico have risen sharply. However, the operation of NAFTA does not have too much influence on the United States and there are important sectoral effects.  
Hanson  G  H.  (1996)  examined  how  economic  cooperation  and  integration between  the  United  States  and  Mexico  have  influenced  the  choice  of  locations  of economic activities in the United States. Using a dataset on economic activity in U.S.-Mexico  border-city  pairs,  he  found  that  the  expansion  of  export  manufacturing  in Mexican border cities has increased manufacturing employment in U.S. border cities. The results indicate that NAFTA will make some contributions to the transfer of US manufacturing production to the US-Mexico border area.
Kimberly a. clausing (2001) studied the changes in trade patterns brought about by Canada-U.S.  free trade agreements. According to  the agreement, changes  in  the degree of tariff liberalization are used to determine the impact of tariff liberalization on trade growth in member and non-member countries. Data used are at the commodity level, and the results show that the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement had
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2.2   Review on China-ASEAN free trade area (CAFTA)
Benjamin A. Roberts (2003) stated the proposed China-ASEAN FTA will have its effect on the global trading system. The welfare improvement brought about by trade creation is not automatic and requires conscious efforts by the less developed ASEAN economies. The results of the model were convincing enough to label the proposed FTA a 'natural' trading bloc.
John  Wong  and  Sarah  Chan  (2003)  stated  that  given  the  current  situation  of development, China and ASEAN are more competitive than complementary, given the similarity  in  their  trade  and  industrial  structures.  ASEAN  and  China  are  also  direct competitors  for  foreign  investment,  rather  than  significant  investors  in  each  other's economies.  Despite  these  challenges,  the  prospects  for  bilateral  trade  to  thrive  are prosperous  in  the  long  run,  both  China  and  ASEAN  can  achieve  economic  linkage through deeper integration..
Zhou (2007) estimated a gravity model to explain the bilateral trade effect between China and ASEAN, taking special notice of the potential problem of endogeneity of the virtual variables of WTO. He presented a two-stage estimation approach and found that WTO membership is endogenous for China and ASEAN. The results yielded a positive coefficient for the WTO dummy variable and indicated that joining WTO could bring benefits to its members by positively boosting the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries.
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3.  The Mechanism of the Impact of Free Trade Area on Trade .................................. 8
3.1  Classification of regional economic integration .............................. 8
3.2  Theory of customs union ..................................... 9
3.3  Theory of free trade area................................. 12
4.  Overview of CAFTA ................................... 14
4.1  Establishment process and significance......................... 14
4.2  Trade status ........................... 15
4.3  Analysis of product competitive advantage ............... 16
5.  Modeling and Econometric Test of CAFTA Trade Effect..................................... 20
5.1  Static effect analysis ............................ 20
5.1.1   Trade gravity model ..................... 20
5.1.2   Endogeneity bias ............................. 21

5.  Modeling and Econometric Test of CAFTA Trade Effect

5.1   Static effect analysis
The  main  purpose  of  this  section  is  to  test  the  trade  creation  effect  and  trade diversion effect of CAFTA on China's trade through empirical analysis. When the trade creation effect is greater than the trade diversion effect, the country will benefit from trade.
5.1.1 Trade gravity model
Gravity model is one of the most useful ways to model and predict foreign trade flows. The idea and concept of gravity model come from Newton's law of universal gravitation in Physics: all objects in the universe are attracted to each other, and the gravity between two objects is proportional to the product of their mass and inversely proportional to the square of their distance. As early as the 1950s, Isard & peck (1954) and Beckerman (1956) intuitively found that the geographical distance between the two countries has a close relationship with the volume of trade between them. that is, the closer, the greater. It is generally believed that Tinbergen (1962) and Poyhonen (1963) were  two  people  that  fisrtly  use  the  gravity  model  of  trade  to  study  the  flow  of international trade, and they drew the same conclusion: the trade scale between the two trading partners is positively related to their overall economic level, while negatively related to the distance between them. Lineman (1966) added demographic variables to the gravity model. He stated that the scale of bilateral trade between the two countries also depends on population, and there is a positive relationship between them. Because the data which are collected for gravity model has the traits of strong availability and high credibility, scholars tend to use this model more and more extensively. As a result, gravity  mosel  has  become  the  main  tool  of  empirical  research  in  the  field  of international trade.
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6.  Conclusions and Suggestions

6.1   Conclusions
This paper analyzed the trade effect of CAFTA from the perspective of static and dynamic trade effects.
For static trade effect, We used panel data dating from 2000 to 2017, covering 21 countries. At the same time, in order to avoid omitted variables bias, we uses time fixed effect and individual-specific fixed effect to capture all the unobserved heterogeneity across  countries.  The  conclusion  is  that  there  is  trade  creation  effect  but  no  trade diversion effect. Instead, the formation of CAFTA also promotes the export activities from non-member countries to China and achieves the trade gains not only for intra-bloc members but also extra-bloc members.
For dynamic trade effect, time series data are used to test the relationship between China’s  trading  activities with ASEAN and ASEAN’s economic growth. The result indicates that the two variables are integrated of order one and shows a cointegration relation. Besides, CAFTA can boost investment and competition among members.  
reference(omitted)