达坂城某风电场项目建设风险管理对策研究
摘 要
在我国能源结构中，一直是以重污染的能源为主，主要包括煤炭、石油等，这些能源都对环境造成很大的污染问题。随着人们对环保意识的增强，人们意识到传统能源对环境的污染，于是国家开始大力推广新能源。虽然在推广新能源方面有了一定的发展，但是从总体上来说，新能源在整个能源结构中的含量还是很低的。风能是新能源中的一种，国家也在鼓励大力发展风能的发展，在国家政策的支持下风能为再生能源的发展提供了很好的发展机会。本文以风电场项目为研究对象，探讨风电场项目的风险管理问题，分析影响项目发展的风险因素，制定风险管理的方法和措施，来减少风险对项目的影响。
论文首先介绍项目的研究背景及意义，对项目风险管理的相关文献进行综述；接着对达坂城某风电场项目进行概述，介绍项目的基本建设情况和组织机构，分析项目的风险及其特征，从项目所处的内部和外部等方面分析项目的风险因素，确定引起风险发生的各种事件，通过整理相关专家的填写的风险调查意见和建议得出了项目的风险清单；然后对项目的风险进行模糊综合评价，参照前面找出来的哪些是项目的风险不利因素，选择合适的因素来作为风险评价指标，对风险的整体进行评价；根据评价结论，提出达坂城某风电场项目风险的应对策略，健全风险监控与管理机制；最后得出研究结论，总结全文所做的主要研究工作，指出研究过程中存在的不完善的方面，作为今后继续研究的方向。
本文结合达坂城某风电场项目实际的建设情况，对风电场项目的建设风险进行了调查、分析和研究，构建了风电场项目的风险评价模型，并探讨了如何对风险进行综合评价的方法和技术，取得的研究结论能够用于指导风电场建设项目的风险管理，有着非常有价值的意义和作用。
关键词：风电场项目，风险管理，模糊综合评价，风险控制
RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
FOR A WIND FARM PROJECT IN DABANCHENG
ABSTRACT
In China's energy structure, coal plays a leading role. Although the state vigorously promotes new energy, its share is still too small. Severe energy form has brought serious environmental pollution problems. The rapid development of renewable energy provides an opportunity to solve the energy crisis and environmental problems in China today. As a renewable energy source, wind energy is widely distributed all over the world. Because of its clean, pollution-free and renewable characteristics, it has received unprecedented attention. China's wind energy resources are rich and widely distributed, and the potential of the wind power generation market is huge. However, due to the complex construction of the wind farm, high technology requirements, long construction period and large investment, all kinds of problems and difficulties may be encountered during the construction process. By comprehensively identifying the risk factors of wind farm projects, a comprehensive and complete risk assessment system is built to provide references for project managers to build and manage projects.
This thesis first introduces the research background and significance of the project, the relevant literature on the project risk management are summarized; then an overview of a Dabancheng wind farm project, the project of basic construction and organization, and analyze the characteristics of the project risk, analysis of risk factors of the project from the project's internal and external aspects, determine the risk caused by various events, through the collation of relevant experts to fill out the risk investigation opinions and suggestions that list of project risks; then the risk of a wind farm project in Dabancheng by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on the basis of the process, according to the identification of project risk factors, risk selection the establishment of evaluation index, the hierarchical structure model of risk assessment, project risk evaluation matrix is constructed, and solved by the The weight coefficient of risk factors, comprehensive evaluation of the overall risk of the project; according to the evaluation results, put forward some coping strategies of Dabancheng wind farm project risk, improve risk monitoring and management mechanism; finally draw the conclusion, summarizes the main research work done, pointed out that the imperfect aspects in the course of the study, as in the future to continue to study the direction.
The construction according to a Dabancheng wind farm project, the wind farm construction project risk were investigated and analyzed, constructed the risk evaluation model of wind power project, and discusses the methods and techniques of how to evaluate the risk, the research conclusions can be used to guide the construction of the wind farm project risk management and to improve the risk management of wind farm project has important practical significance.
KEY WORDS:wind farm project, risk management, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, risk control
目 录
第1章.绪论 9
1.1 研究背景及意义 9
1.1.1研究背景 9
1.1.2研究意义 10
1.2 国内外研究现状 10
1.2.1风险管理国内外研究现状 10
1.2.2风电发展国内外研究现状 12
1.3 研究思路与方法 14
1.3.1研究思路 14
1.3.2研究方法 14
1.4主要研究内容 15
第2章.相关理论概述 16
2.1项目风险管理相关理论 16
2.1.1项目与项目风险 16
2.1.2项目风险的特点 16
2.1.3项目风险管理的过程 17
2.2风险评价的方法 17
2.2.1定性分析 17
2.2.2定量分析 18
2.2.3定性与定量分析相结合的方法 19
第3章达坂城某风电场项目建设风险的识别 21
3.1项目概述 21
3.1.1项目开发背景 21
3.1.2项目管理组织机构 21
3.2项目风险来源 22
3.2.1内部因素 22
3.2.2外部因素 23
3.3项目建设风险的识别 23
3.3.1风险识别方法 23
3.3.2风险识别过程 24
3.4风险识别结果 26
3.4.1自然灾害风险 26
3.4.2技术风险 26
3.4.3政策风险 27
3.4.4经济风险 28
3.4.5管理风险 28
第4章达坂城某风电场项目建设风险的模糊综合评价 30
4.1模糊综合评价方法 30
4.1.1模糊综合评价概述 30
4.1.2模糊综合评价流程 30
4.2达坂城某风电场项目风险评价的指标层次模型 31
4.2.1评价指标的选取原则 31
4.2.2层次模型的构建 31
4.2.3评价指标分析 33
4.3达坂城某风电场项目风险的模糊综合评价 34
4.3.1构建风险模糊矩阵 34
4.3.2求解权重系数 35
4.3.3模糊综合评价结果 36
第5章达坂城某风电场项目建设风险的管理对策 38
5.1自然灾害风险的管理对策 38
5.2技术风险的管理对策 39
5.3政策风险的管理对策 40
5.4经济风险的管理对策 41
5.5管理风险的管理对策 42
第6章总结与展望 45
致谢 46
参考文献 47
Table of contents
Charpter 1 Forword 4
1.1 Research background and significance 4
1.1.1 Research background 4
1.1.2 Research significance 5
1.2 Research status at home and abroad 5
1.2.1 Research status of risk management 5
1.2.2 Research status of wind power 7
1.3 Research ideas and methods 9
1.3.1Research ideas 9
1.3.2 Research methods 10
1.4 Main research content 10
Chapter 2. Overview of related theories 11
2.1Theory of projec trisk management 11
2.1.1 project and risk 11
2.1.2 Characteristic of risk 11
2.1.3 Risk management process 12
2.2 Risk assessment method 13
2.2.1 Qualitative method 13
2.2.2 quantitative method 14
2.2.3 Combination of quantitative and qualitative 15
Chapter 3 Identification of risk in the construction of a wind farm project in Dabancheng 16
3.1 Project overview 16
3.1.1 Project development background 16
3.1.2 Project management organization 16
3.2 Project risk sources 17
3.2.1 Internal factors 17
3.2.2 External factors 19
3.3 Identification of risk in the construction 19
3.3.1 Identification method 19
3.3.2 Identification process 20
3.4 Identification results 22
3.4.1 Natural disaster risk 22
3.4.2 Technical risk 22
3.4.3 Policy risk 23
3.4.4 economic risks 25
3.4.5 Management risk 26
Chapter 4 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of construction risk of a wind farm in Dabancheng 28
4.1 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation 28
4.1.1 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation overview 28
4.1.2 Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation process 28
4.2Index level model for risk assessment 29
4.2.1 The selection principle of evaluation index 29
4.2.2 Construction of hierarchical model 30
4.2.3 Evaluation index analysis 31
4.3fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the risk 32
4.3.1 Construction of risk fuzzy matrix 32
4.3.2 Weight coefficient 34
4.3.3 fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results 34
Chapter 5 Risk management strategies for a wind farm project in Dabancheng 36
5.1 Stratrgies of natural disaster risk 36
5.2 Stratrgies of technical disaster risk 37
5.3 Stratrgies of policy disaster risk 37
5.4 Stratrgies of economics disaster risk 38
5.5 Stratrgies of managment disaster risk 39
Chapter 6 Conclusion 41
Acknowledgement 42
References 43