Chapter one: Introduction
1.1 Background
The Chinese president, His Excellency Xi Jinping, in 2013, announced the mega project of the Belt and Road Initiative to build a Silk Road Economic Belt and a 21st century Maritime Silk Road. The BRI connects three continents, Asia, Europe, and Africa, to create job opportunities, economic development, investment, cultural exchanges, and regional collaboration between Asia, Europe, and Africa (Hui Lu, Charlene Rohr, Marco Hafner 2018). In May 2017, the Asian-led world order started, 68 countries assembled in Beijing for the first time to join the Belt and Road Initiative summit. This gathering indicated that the leaders of Asian, European, and African are attending to the biggest harmonized infrastructure investment strategy in history. Each country is assured of spending trillions of dollars in this project to connect the world’s leading population hubs (Khanna 2019).
As far as BRI is to connect different countries at the crossroads of Central, South, and Southwest Asia, Afghanistan is positioned to be partner with China through the BRI Initiative. Afghanistan seem to be one of the great benefiter of this initiative in different aspects (Ministary 2016). Although Afghanistan was initially not included in BRI, it was one of those countries that signed the BRI agreement for cooperation.
The friendly relationship between the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has a long and endless background. This close relation can be observed even long before the Silk Road era. In the fourth and fifth centuries onward, Chinese pilgrims started to assemble towards the Afghan-Indian midpoints of Buddhist learning, while Middle Eastern goods and crafts traveled to China via the same Silk Road (Dai 1966). Historical relations between China and Afghanistan instigated in the seventh century A.D. At that time, a monk from China by the name of Xuan Zang traveled to Bamiyan province of Afghanistan to visit the statue of Buddha through the old Silk Road (H. Khan 2016), and during the Silk Road era, both countries were depending on each other, and they were using Silk Road for their friendship, economic cooperation, bilateral trade, and religious perspective (Talmiz 2016).
...............................
1.2 Research Questions
Afghanistan struggles hard to build its fragile economic situation for a stable and prosperous economy. Therefore, the author wants to know the opportunities and challenges that will be there for both countries in the context of the BRI project. Moreover, the author will also elaborate on the beneficial side of the BRI for the Afghan economy. The thesis has developed some research questions as follow:
What are the specific opportunities and challenges for BRI in Afghanistan?
This research at the country level can shed light on both states' policymakers to pinpoint the challenges and opportunities between the two neighboring countries. That could enhance mutual relations, trade, and commerce, and it will present some policy offers to overcome the obstacles. Besides, it can outline the benefits that both countries can get through BRI for win-win cooperation. The result of this research, in the new multipolar world, can make the Afghan policymakers mostly focus on China because China is a global economic power and is the center of economic gravity which all countries have been integrated with it from different aspects for a prosper financial future by tracing the opportunities and challenges which BRI can bring to it. So that if China includes Afghanistan to the BRI, the first and foremost benefit that Afghanistan will gain is security, stability, and economic growth. The result of the research will point out that all key countries of the region will need to deal with Afghanistan, to settle the decade’s long Afghan war tragedy, for the future of Afghanistan, and the success of the regional trade plan of the BRI.
............................
Chapter Two: Sino-Afghan Relations in Post-Karzai Era
19 2.1 China’s new security concerns towards Afghanistan
After formation of National Unity Government in Afghanistan and even before that the peace agenda and the NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was in international community’s spotlight. China also as a regional power since 9/11 had been in a dilemma and has had its concerns because of the U.S. and NATO presence in Afghanistan. China’s concern from one side has been that she has viewed the U.S. existence in Afghanistan as a strategic threat, however from the other side; the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is believed to have benefited China because of the security situation which has been created by the United State. As a neighboring country, Afghanistan is an important state for China and stability in Afghanistan is essential interest of China, for that Afghanistan has been placed in second and third circles of China’s national security rings because Afghanistan is China’s neighbor and it shares a small border with it and if Afghanistan becomes home to the terrorists, it would impact China’s first ring of national security which is controlling the Uighur Autonomous Region a home to Uyghur Sunni Muslim population with Turkic ethnicity (Alexander Farhad 2015). From Beijing’s point of view, the conflict in Afghanistan strengthens Islamic fundamentalism which will endanger China’s internal security mainly in Xinjiang province, by changing the region into safe haven for Uyghur militancy, and could enhance the spread of terrorism from Afghanistan to the region, therefore Afghanistan’s internal stability is crucial for China (SUN 2020). Additionally, The BRI which is a regional economic cooperation agenda has a crucial economic and security importance for China and because of that Afghanistan has become of strategic, political and security importance to China for the security of this mage project in the future.
The U.S. and ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanistan has resulted mainly in three consequences for China and three school of thoughts have been discussing the issue as such that the first school thinks; ISAF’s departure from Afghanistan would increase the security situation of Afghanistan, because the ISAF’s withdrawal would remove one of the drivers of current conflict in Afghanistan.
.............................
2.2 China’s policy toward Afghanistan
Given China’s security concerns towards Afghanistan, and according Zhao Huasheng, a well-known expert of the central Asian issues, who argues that China would support the following policies in regard to Afghanistan; sovereignty and independence of Afghanistan that would be governed by Afghans, achieving peace through political reconciliation, promoting of development of Afghanistan progressively, encouraging Afghans to be a friendly neighbor, and enhancing international cooperation with the United Nations toward Afghanistan (Alexander Farhad 2015), and he also asserts that China has been as an active player in Afghanistan but with a low profile position. China as an active player has shown its economic engagement by its state-owned ventures in Afghanistan as the biggest and largest foreign direct investor in Afghanistan (Wishnick 2014). After all there is a policy consensus in regard to Afghanistan between academicians and that is economic and diplomatic engagement and preventing military involvement (Kley 2014).
There are some reasons for these policies starting by its non-military intervention. The first reason, that why military involvement cannot solve the instability in Afghanistan is argued by Zhoa Huasheng, who argues that Taliban movement has been in Afghanistan for quite a long time and to eradicate them is not possible as the U.S. and Western military experience for 20 years of fighting proves his argue. The second reason is argued by Chinese policy makers which argue that if China is involved by military forces in Afghanistan’s issues, therefore China would become a military target by non-Uyghur forces, and international terrorist groups. The third reason is that China does not have enough experience and military capability to control the situation in Afghanistan, and that is because China does not have experience in organizing troops overseas. The fourth reason is that if China deploys its military forces overseas, then it would be against its non-interference policy which is claimed by its foreign policy (Kley 2014).
政治论文参考
Chapter Three: The Opportunities of the BRI in Afghanistan .......................... 27
3.1 Economic growth scenarios ........................... 27
3.2 Economic Security Creation to Afghanistan via Belt and Road Initiative ................ 28
3.3 Specific opportunities that would be created to Afghanistan by the BRI .................. 29
Chapter Four: The Challenges of the BRI in Afghanistan ................................. 33
4.1 The Geopolitical Challenge .................................. 33
4.2 Domestic security challenges ....................................... 35
4.3 Investment climate challenges ........................................ 36
Chapter Five: Analysis and Discussions Based on Empirical Study ............................. 38
5.1 The positive overall view of respondents’ perspective on the BRI in Afghanistan ... 38
5.2 The Revive of Geo-economic Location of Afghanistan and its Privileges to BRI .... 40
5.3 The win-win situation between China and Afghanistan ........................ 41
Chapter Seven: How to make BRI work in Afghanistan? Main Findings and Policy Recommendations
7.1 How to make Belt and Road Initiative work in Afghanistan
China through the BRI project would be capitalizing in different countries especially in Asia and is going to accomplish five major tasks which are coordination in policy, facilitating the connectivity, enhancing trade, creating financial integration and making people to people contacts, to create economic interdependency, multi and bilateral business among all the states who are part of the BRI project. Afghanistan can be one of those benefiters, which is going to be among the BRI states.
As Afghanistan is slowly phasing out of physical conflict and entering a new period of negotiations, the post war Afghanistan is in dire need of the essential infrastructure like the BRI to fix the devastations of war and kick-start the national growth engine. The BRI is a sign of major changes to come to the afghan economy and Afghanistan’s role and contribution in regional economic growth and development. Through Belt and Road Initiative Afghanistan can interconnect with all the countries in the region and beyond to Europe.
To make BRI work for Afghanistan, first of all the Afghan government needs to stabilize the security situation inside the country, because insecurity and war plus exaction and racketeering by local terrorist groups can impede the implementation of BRI project as it was discussed and analyzed previously, besides the Taliban see national level projects as a major source of income to finance their terrorist activities. The Taliban engage in extortions, kidnapping of personnel, illegal taxation and other criminal activities to receive funds from tender companies and donors, that is why it should be the priority of Afghan government to secure the country for attracting foreign direct investment through BRI project.
政治论文怎么写
.............................
Chapter Eight: Conclusion
The Belt and Road Initiative is one of the mega and unique projects of the People’s Republic of China around the world which has attracted many countries’ attention, currently it is known as the leading driver of the next wave of Asian growth which is the largest coordinated infrastructure investment program in the history of the world. For many people, it harkens the dawn of a new golden age of the Silk Road.
As it was exemplified in the sixth chapter of the research the project has altered and is altering Pakistan’s different sectors especially its economy as one of the tenets of the BRI project is that the BRI would create economic stabilization, therefore the result of the research after a comprehensive study of the primary and secondary data indicated that the BRI project has the potential to create many opportunities for the post-war Afghanistan effectively, and could be as one of the best alternatives comparing to other projects around Afghanistan in the region. Furthermore the result indicated that China has altered its diplomacy toward Afghanistan and is engaging more diplomatically and economically with Afghanistan to gradually and practically include Afghanistan in the BRI project. Also it was indicated that the BRI would create economic security to Afghanistan by facilitating job opportunities and attracting foreign direct investments into Afghanistan which will also boost the private sector and people to people contacts. In addition it was indicated that the project would be beneficial to both countries for example Afghanistan could become a trade and transit hub in the region and China would be benefited through the already built corridors of Afghanistan and could fulfill its energy through natural resources of Afghanistan, but the challenge is still the insecurity and regional competition among stakeholders which must be eradicated in Afghanistan.
reference(omitted)