互联网企业投资价值评估研究:百度案例

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Chapter I Introduction
 
1.1 Research Background
With  the  rapid  development  of  the  Internet  economy,  the  number  of  Internet companies in China has increased rapidly, the scale of enterprises has been expanding, and  the  financing,  mergers  and  acquisitions  and  other activities have  become increasingly frequent. Different from the traditional enterprise, the Internet enterprise has  the characteristics  of  initial  investment  cost  is  high,  the  product  or  service  the future income uncertainty is high and the long payback period, determines the Internet enterprise  value  assessment  is  not  simply  the  traditional enterprise value  assessment model. On the other hand, Internet companies in the early days of the establishment, often  put  a lot  of  money,  low  economic  returns,  resulting  in  sustained  losses.  The majority of enterprises' financial support comes from venture capital investment. With the  expansion  of  the  size  of  the  user  and  the  increase  in  the value of  the  enterprise potential, Internet companies will get more working capital through IPO, thus making the source of corporate capital to equity financing. According to the special nature of the  Internet  business,  forcing  us  to  determine a  reasonable  and  effective  valuation system  of  the  Internet  business  is  very  important.  Therefore,  the Internet enterprise value  assessment  has  become  a  practice  in  the  evaluation  function  to  solve  the problem. 
At  present,  China's  Internet  industry  is  in  a  stage  of  rapid  development,  the  Internet industry not only change people's communication, life and management, but also led to the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries in china. China's Internet companies  mainly  in  the  main  board  of  Hongkong,  the  United  States  NASDAQ  and New York Stock Exchange listed financing, such as Baidu, Sina, Ctrip, etc.. But a few Internet  companies  in  the  new  three board  listed,  such  as  the  focus  of  science  and technology, music, etc.. With the opening of the new board, the future will have more Internet  companies  in  this  financing  market,  or  underestimate  the  value  of  Internet companies are not conducive to the development of the Internet economy. 
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1.2 The Significance of This Paper 
With the development of the Internet economy, the Internet enterprises play more and more important role in our Chinese market. Under this circumstance, it is too difficult to get a quick development and open new business and market by transformation just depending on the study of their own products and technologies. So, a large group of Internet M&A cases  appear  in  Chinese  market.  However,  it  was  reported  by  some relative  data  that  the  rate  of  failure  of these  cases  in  China  is  very  high.  The traditional  way  of  assessment  of  investment  value  is  becoming  out  for nowadays Internet  M&A.  Thus,  it  has  significant  theoretical  and  practical  meaning  for  us  to figure  out  how  to assess  the  value  of  Internet  enterprises fairly  and  objectively. Though, the theories and study ways of assessment of investment value is mature, we still need to find the disadvantages and perfect it. Especially in the Internet field. As an new field, the development speed of it has beyond our prediction. Nevertheless, it also  has  its  shortcomings--High  risk and  high  yield.  Especially  in  the  key  stage  of transformation  between  traditional  and  new  enterprises,  this  time ask  some  new requirements for traditional assessment of investment ways. By deep study on Internet enterprises’ characteristics  and  business  model  and  comprehensive  understanding  of its background, we can work out a reasonable assessment system. Then, we can give a more  integrative  and  accurate  assessment  theory  for  the financing  and  M&A  in  the Internet  enterprises.  Besides,  it  also  can  rich  the  theory  of  assessment  of investment value.  
In  addition,  with  the  development  of  global  economy  and  the  rapid  adjustment of domestic industrial structure, as an important method for deploy the social resources, ​M&A is becoming a more and more important role in Chinese capital market. For the activities  of  M&A  become  more  and  more  active,  the  reasonable  assessment  of investment value is a key for choosing the target enterprises and the price of M&A. If deepen  the  study  of assessment  of  investment,  the  success  rate  of  M&A  will  be increased  together. 
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Chapter II Literature Review
 
2.1 The Research on Economic Fundamentals 
The  technical  means  to  realize  the  evaluation  of  assets  value  is  the  enterprise  value evaluation  method.  Only when  the  enterprise  value  evaluation  method  itself  is concerned,  it  is  not  unique  to  the  process  of  enterprise value  evaluation.  In  fact,  the enterprise  value  assessment  method  in  engineering,  technology,  statistics, financial management,  accounting  and  other  disciplines  theory  and  technique,  this  system  is  a set of methods combined with the characteristics and the formation of enterprise value. The  method  of  enterprise  value  assessment  is  not only  related  to  the  technical methods  of  other  parallel  theories.  The  difference  is,  enterprise  value  assessment methods  of  other  disciplines  basic  theory  and  technology,  in  accordance  with  the inherent requirements of evaluation and reorganization of enterprise value assessment idea  of  enterprise  value  work  to  restructure,  and constitute  the  method  of  enterprise value  evaluation  system.1  The  component  of  value  evaluation  method  of the enterprise  by  the  specific  system,  according  to  the  analysis  of  application  of  the principles and techniques of different methods, these methods can be summarized into three  basic  types,  or  three  basic  methods,  namely  cost method,  income  method  and cost method. 
With the development of Internet technology and innovative business model, industry market  size  in  the  whole Internet  industry  maintained  a  rapid  growth  momentum. Since 2013, China's Internet industry's big three: baidu, alibaba, tencent, set off a huge mergers  and  acquisitions  boom.  Between  the  Internet  enterprise  merger, acquisition and  reorganization  in  resource  integration  to  promote  industry  has  played  a  positive role. Target enterprise value evaluation is the key factor in the process of m&a deals. The  present  situation  and  tendency  of  the development  of  the  Internet  industry  and enterprise,  the  Internet  enterprise  customers,  service  characteristics, operating characteristics  are  different  from  traditional  enterprise,  and  these  factors  will  affect the  Internet enterprise  value  evaluation  procedure  and  evaluation  result.  It  is  due  to the  particularity  of  Internet  companies that  make  the  common  valuation  methods  in the  applicability  of  the  Internet  companies  not  only  to  the merger,  acquisition  and reorganization  in  order  to  maintain  the  Internet  industry  trade  fair  has  a  realistic significance, but also enriched the valuation method in the study of the theory of the Internet industry.
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2.2 The Financial Option Valuation Theory
​The cost method is based on the book value of the assets and liabilities of the balance sheet, and the enterprise value is obtained by adjusting the value, which is the starting point  of  the  reconstruction  of  the  elements  of  the  enterprise. Compared  with  the market  method  and  income  method,  the  evaluation  result  of  cost  method  is  more objective,  and  the  operation  is  simple.  Under  normal  circumstances,  it  is  appropriate to  use  the  cost  method to  assess  the  value  of  a  holding  company  that  only  has  an investment or has a real estate, and the assessment of the enterprise is not sustainable. Internet  companies  are  asset  light type  enterprise,  if  the  enterprise  holds  the balance sheet  of  the  assets  and liabilities  of  the  re  valuation  to  calculate  the  value  of  the enterprise, will ignore the potential resources of Internet companies, such as Internet companies have user resources, not in accordance with the method of valuation of the reset, this will cause the target of enterprise valuation the result is low, cannot reflect the development process of creating target enterprises in the future period the value of cost  method  is  mainly  used  in the  process  of  liquidation  of  target  enterprise,  but  not for restructuring in merger and acquisition valuation.​
By  means  of  evaluation  of  enterprise  and  market  and  be  evaluated  enterprise  similar enterprises  compare  and analyze  the  market,  adjust  and  revise  to  the  similar enterprises  in  the  market  value,  and  thereby  determine  a method  of  evaluating  the enterprise  value.  The  key  is  to  market  through  market  research,  selection and assessment by one or several same or similar enterprises as reference, according to the analysis  of  the  relevant circumstances  of  the  enterprise,  in  essence,  according  to  the enterprise  and  the  goal  enterprise  to  have  a high  degree  of  comparability  in  the commercial mode of operation, the target customer groups, to provide Internet service other aspects of the type, has a value that refer to the value of the enterprise, and then through  the adjustment  factor  of  the  adjustment  and  the  revision,  so  that  the  target enterprise  value  of  the  company.  
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Chapter III .................. 31
The Research Method Application of the Discounted Cash Flow by Baidu ............... 31
3.1 The Definition of Enterprise Evaluation ............... 31
3.2 The Selection of Samples/ Data Collecting ............. 31​
Chapter IV A Case Study of Baidu Valuation Theory .................... 53
4.1 The Evaluation Types Owned by Baidu.................... 53
4.2 EVA Model Parameters .................... 57
 
Chapter IV A Case Study of Baidu Valuation Theory
 
4.1 The Evaluation Types Owned by Baidu
This chapter takes Baidu Inc as an example, tries to use the EVA valuation model to assess  the  intrinsic  value  of Internet  enterprises  in  China.  The  Baidu  Inc  as  the research object mainly consider the following two points: first, Baidu has 10 years in the United States, the U.S. capital market is more mature, the stock price can reflect the intrinsic value of the enterprise; second, Baidu is the domestic Internet companies three "14 giants" is one of the representative in the domestic Internet companies.
​This  chapter  is  the  intrinsic  value  of  Baidu  Inc  enterprise  basic  ideas:  firstly, qualitative analysis of the basic situation of the Baidu Inc, the macro environment and the company strategy and other aspects; secondly, to January 2, 2015 as the valuation date, respectively using EVA model, DCF model and P/E model assessment of Baidu Inc in the valuation date of the intrinsic value of the enterprise. Finally, the results of the valuation of the three models are compared and analyzed.
Internet  has  become  a  key  industry  which influences  the  economic  development  and changes people's life form in China. This part through the Internet macro and industry environment analysis, combined with the Baidu Inc's own situation, analysis of macro and industry environment on the future growth of the Baidu Inc or the impact factor. Baidu Inc  macro  and  industry  environment  analysis  mainly  from  four  aspects  of  the political, economic, social and technical aspects of the introduction. 
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Chapter V Conclusion
​This paper demonstrates the applicability of the EVA valuation model to the valuation of Internet companies from two aspects of theory and empirical analysis respectively. From  the  theoretical  point  of  view,  the  Internet  enterprise organization  is  different with the traditional enterprise, its particularity in the growth mode, financing channels, cost structure  and  profit  model  and  competitive  advantages,  the  use  of  traditional value assessment theory and method is quite limited. The EVA valuation model makes up  for  the  limitations  of  traditional  valuation  theory  without considering  the  cost  of equity  capital,  which  can  accurately  reflect  the  cost  of  investment  in  Internet companies.  At  the  same  time,  the  EVA  model  of  enterprise  R  &  D  costs  reasonable capitalization,  goodwill, reasonable amortization,  etc.,  so  that  the  Internet  business valuation  can  better  reflect the  development potential  of  the  enterprise.  From  the empirical  perspective,  this  paper  takes  Baidu  Inc  as  an  example,  using the  EVA valuation  model  assesses  the  overall  value  of  the  enterprise  on  the  DCF  and  P/E valuation  valuation results,  results  were  compared,  results  show  that  the  intrinsic value of EVA valuation results can reflect the Baidu Inc.​
There  is  no  doubt  that  in  assessing  the  overall  value  of  the  Internet  business, compared  to  the  traditional valuation  model,  EVA  valuation  model  has  more advantages. But it is clear that the EVA valuation model deficiencies still exist in the process of actual value assessment of enterprises, mainly reflected in two aspects: one is  due  to  the uncertainty  of  future  earnings,  resulting  in  uncertainty  of  the  intrinsic value  of  the  enterprise,  thus  affecting  the accuracy  of  evaluation  to  a  certain  extent. This  is  the  initial  stage  of  the  Internet  enterprise  value assessment of  the  impact  of greater; on the other hand is in the assessment process, the cost of equity capital and future  growth rate  of  these  two  key  indicators  to  deal  with  quite  complex.  This  not only  requires  analysts  have  a  solid professional  knowledge,  but  also  has  a  wealth  of experience  in  forecasting,  the  assessment  of  the  enterprise and  its  industry  has  a thorough  and  thorough  understanding  to  improve  the  accuracy  of the  assessment value.
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