Chapter 1 – Case Puzzling
1.1 – European History Background
In order to proceed to our theoretical exercise, we firstly need to set the environment where our elements of analysis are, in order to understand the adversities and motivations that guided the foreign policy of each state. The time frame that we are focusing is the transition from XVII to XVIII century in Europe. The “old” continent was in a constant turmoil at international level with the rising of new political forces with worldwide agendas. At this stage, the reason why I pointed these two centuries is because it can be visualized and witness the rise of England into world affairs as a Great Power and, also, for theoretical reasons it supports my argument, as it follows ahead. One might say that two centuries can contain an amount of excess of historical data to cover, however, since this is an International Relations exercise I, respectfully, want to stand out just the significant events that were powerful enough to change the balance between all European Great Powers. Each century bear some key events that demonstrate the European game-reality and regarding the Anglo-Portuguese dyad it supports the idea of my argument with genuine and undeniable data. For the sake of academic obligations they will be summarized but it won’t affect the final outcome of this project.
In the absence of a superpower, or at least a State that could control the majority of European States’ affairs internationally, the European atmosphere was marked with a very high competitive spirit and became a hostile place for those who try to seek their fortune by demonstrations of power projection. The pursuit for power came in many forms and with different approaches. As the world became more globalized the European State had to diversify their sources of power. This means that there was a constant race to acquire new markets, or try to steal the most profitable ones. Also, overseas lands offer the political elite an opportunity to explore at their own will, regarding of its cultural practices and religion. By this statement, we can see that not only the political class was interested in this venture, but also other classes were supporting such cause by selfishness. During this first stage of worldwide Imperial rush, we could see many religious orders supporting such behavior, as well as great fluxes of migrations.As this situation evolved the stakes and national interests were getting dangerously higher.
1.2 – The Methuen Treaty under the Anglo-Portuguese Dyad
This segment is dedicated to the Treaty itself as a crucial piece regarding the closure of this exercise. After, a summarized outcome of what happen while the Treaty was active. Then, a overview of the dyad while standing out some interesting points of observation.
A.D. Francis1 briefly described in his article what this treaty was about. Portugal was struggling in the end of the XVII century to keep its balance of trade in positive numbers ever since the sugar and gold industry met slow rates of extraction and revenue. Responsible for a large Empire, a weak Portugal would mean an easy prey to the others Great Powers interested in the markets that Portugal controlled. Giving this scenario, a solution was found next to England and the renewing process was on the making. They began to look inwards and found that the solution could be provided by specific products with great commercial potential.
Simply, it was wine for clothes and vice-versa; however, the structure was far bigger than those two families of products which result in great political outcomes. For England, it was the textile industry that represented one of the bi-part agreements. A country with great potential in producing cloth, due to the large amount of cattle, capable of producing good quality textile within a fast process production cycle that could transform into the final product and ship out in relative fast speed. They had the geographical conditions for great productions which were enhanced by the engineers to make the process even faster and with better quality. The fast production concept was started to meet new frames of understanding, for Portugal was in great need of those products as much as England needed to bail out the same line of products to avoid surplus. As for Portugal, the wine industry stands out as the evident potential product that could link the partnership of England under the Treaty. Still, there was a problem with this industry, in fact, to meet up for the demanding Portugal wasn’t prepared for it. With this treaty, Portugal could focus into the wine industry and improve it since England was providing the other necessary asset. Therefore, together, they were maximizing their products under a commercial treaty but with very strong political outcomes since they were, or becoming to be, international actors.
Chapter 2 – Building Theory
After I analyzed the historical overview and understanding that the issue of trade is one of the leading reasons to go to war with another state, then one can realized that trade once conducted in a particular way can also provoke positive outcomes. As the Anglo-Portuguese shows, under the right circumstances, trade can influence the decision maker to exclude policies that would seem offensive and provocative. Moving away from the European mainstream policy proved to be very beneficial for these two states in particular and the 1703’ Methuen Treaty mark the ground-zero for this process.
2.1 – Literature Discussion
War, conflict and unstable relations by their own nature are very broad topics. It is a study that goes from a priori to a posteriori, unveiling the reasons why states proceed to behave in such way and how they conclude them. Regarding the political organization that prevails, it is a requirement when the political topography has changed. Understanding this phenomenon is essential, even in today’s world politics. The occurrence of war is still common and many of them involve, direct or indirectly, some of the top global players. These undergoing conflicts, although they are localized in some key region, become global issues because a variety of public goods can be affected, no matter the distance between the nations. I admit that the casusbellis of war has changed along the History, but what we still have are unstable relations with far too many highs and lows between dyads. War has become a very serious act where the risk is even higher but unstable relations can be devastating as well, both in political and economic level.
2.2 – Trade Expectations Theory
I bring into this discussion the theory that can unveil the logical mechanism and lay down a rational explanation upon the Anglo-Portuguese dyad. Given all the data collected so far, from historical evidences and how the literature available has limitations in explaining this case, I suggest one theory that can diminish the gap between theory and real-life event and therefore giving us the possibility of a satisfactory level of clarity. I’m motivated to do so only because the literature available regarding this problem derives from Historical records with no emphasize on the practical and central questions. We should demand an explanation that leaves no action by chance. That is, we should be rigorous while explaining any given event to understand, as best as possible, the society we live in. This is an opportunity to enhance our knowledge of past events and from them extract a valuable lesson with potential appliance in contemporary days. Minor adjustments need to be done, obviously, but the mechanism that the Anglo-Portuguese alliance unlocked, under the circumstances they lived in, is worthy of attention.
We start off by bring back the argument presented and the questions that define the research. Thus, I argue that with a strong network of specialized clusters in key products it is possible to create positive expectations and by consequence enhance the dyad relation, even when power politics dominated the environment. This means that there is a mechanism that made a stable relation possible even under a hostile environment. To narrow the research down I asked what motivated these two nations to become more interdependent of each other when all remain world class actors were following a different strategy of dealing with the English rising power. Moreover, as trade flow becomes a central structure for power, did the signing of the Methuen Treaty proved to be the right platform or pivotal role in provoking the stable relations within the Anglo-Portuguese dyad? As will be discuss in the following chapter, the alliance was found itself in an anachronistic status. This means that Portugal and England had celebrated treaties that no longer represent the political reality of both nations. As English power rises up to international affairs, Portuguese power projection seemed to be on a maintaining stage. Also, the geopolitical map of mainland Europe was under pressure with the fast growing France, which was provoking new Western Europe. This issue represented to Portugal a delicate matter to deal with1. The English friendship had it’s downsize as well, because once you declare alliance to England, English enemies are yours as well, until some extension. The new French royal family, which made its debut before the end of the 17th century, was projecting its influence across finis terra. Once the English authorities recognize the new French royal family, Portugal had to do so and new diplomatic connections were made The Portuguese Pragmatic Laws are a top example of what was current and acceptable in countries with world presence. That is, the closure of the markets and strict access of others to its resources and only to bargain in political prices. These waves of economic policies reached naturally in Portugal and efforts to re-rise old and traditional industries sounded the alarms back in London.
Chapter 3 – From Negative to Positive Trade Expectations ........ 45
3.1 – Two Period’ Analysis ............... 45
3.2 – 17th Century (1650 ~ 1700)........... 46
3.3 – 18th Century (1700~1760) ............. 51
Chapter 4 - Conclusions ............. 55
4.1 – Analyzing the Findings .................. 55
4.2 – Beyond the Case, Observations ............................. 59
Chapter 3 – From Negative to Positive Trade Expectations
3.1 – Two Period’ Analysis
The chapter that now follows concerns the point that there is a necessity to clarify and to demonstrate that the Anglo-Portuguese relation evolved from a negative to a positive trade expectation. It so happens that History provided us within these two centuries evidence that illustrate such evolution. This paper is expected to reinforce the idea that positive trade expectations can be possible to establish even under a realist policy oriented realm. This chapter will emphasize the practical side of this exercise and hard evidence will follow in order to support the theoretical truths. There are some crucial moments that define the course of History and I expect to shine light upon those that have significant value in affecting the Anglo-Portuguese relations. Hence, we should question what happen domestically that made this positive evolution possible? Or even, why there is an evolution in the first place? Thus, given both domestic situations one can cross information that also coincide with theoretical assumptions. In other words, this chapter will give a more solid body, with the following historical evidence, after the historical puzzle and theoretical framework had been concluded.
Chapter 4 - Conclusions
4.1 – Analyzing the Findings
As it reaches the ending stage of this exercise, this chapter brings about conclusive thoughts concerning one stabilization process between countries. Within this paper there are three chapters that all together build a new perspective of the oldest alliance in the History.
The first introductory chapter builds the main puzzle, or case, so that the reader can easily picture all the necessary elements. This paper starts off with the historical overview of Europe in order to give the unfamiliar with Europe issues reader to, at least partially, comprehend the environment and complexity of political entanglements which produced in Western Europe a very high competitive spirit. Also to build up the international environment characteristics. The Great Powers politics was the result of the superpower absence that could handle and appease European affairs. Overseas land possessions that could be explored commercially, mainly, could be later transformed into state capability, or in another words, power. The rush to acquire such lands motivated arms race and rapid development across the main actors identified here. While there was a warlike tension among all Great Powers with global agendas, there were two of them practicing collaboration over confrontation. Still in the same chapter, the segment of historical cases pin-points the actual warlike environment that reigned in this period. One intriguing fact becomes clear that all states, interested in this thesis, fought the rising England, as the main player, as the next undisputed global power. However, Portugal, although weaken overtime, was still in the pot of the Great Powers for its influence in all major sea ways and presence in South America, Atlantic Ocean, West and East Africa, Middle East, the Sub-Continent of India and China. Holder of many products precious to European life style, Portugal confidence was not taken for granted and a new and more updated alliance was needed, otherwise, the spirit of competition and high levels of mercantilism, the realist perspective of commercial conduct, had driven the alliance to a bitter end given all.
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